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Instrument: GOLD
Bullish Preference:
A buy position is envisaged if the price trades above 1933.95 with take profit at 1937.44.
Bearish Preference:
A sell position is envisaged if the price trades below 1926.76 with take profit at 1923.55.
Fundamentals:
None with High Impact
Comment: US Treasury yields have opened the week lower as fears grow of an upcoming recession in the US. The UST 2-year is 10 basis points lower than Friday’s high at 4.70%, while the UST 10-year is 12 basis points lower at 3.68% over the same timeframe. The near 100 basis point backwardation between the 2s and 10s is a strong recessionary indicator. Despite lower bond yields, US interest rates are seen moving higher. Looking at CME Fed Fund futures, the probability that the US central bank hikes rates by 25 basis points on July 26 is currently at a lofty 72% with no interest rate cuts expected until January 2024.
Analysis: SCRUM Team
