Instrument: EURUSD
Bullish Preference:
A buy position is envisaged if the price trades above 1.07138 WithTake profit at 1.07288
Bearish Preference:
A sell position is envisaged if the price trades below 1.06801 with Take profit at 1.06662
Fundamentals:
1:30 PM USD: Unemployment Claims
Comment:
The US dollar index remains on the front foot, aided by robust US Treasury yields and Euro weakness. The latest CME Fed Fund probabilities now point to the June 2024 FOMC for the first official rate cut. Of note also is that the probabilities of a 25 basis point hike in either November or December this year have grown recently, helped by stronger-than-expected US economic data.
The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair breaking below the 200-day simple moving average with conviction last Friday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure from all three smas. The next levels of support can be seen at 1.0635 and 1.0615, levels that were last traded in late-May and mid-March respectively. Initial resistance is at 1.0787 before the 200-dsma at 1.0821. The CCI indicator shows the pair in oversold territory, so this may delay or slow any further sell-off.
Analysis: SCRUM Team